So maybe not everyone knows about the Mighty Spawn Puking Tervigon but I have a feeling most people will be seeing them at sometime in the near future on the table top. The basic ability is for them to hatch 3D6 Termagaunts a turn. So what I wanted to go over is how many of those little beasties can you get onto the table.
So let's just start off with the Odds, and remembering that on a Double or Triple it can not pop anymore beasties out a turn. We're also going to figure this out saying that there are five of these Tervigons on the table.
So Turn 1:
5 Tervigons, all functioning, average roll of 3D6 is well 10.5 but we'll round that up to 11 to make the math easier. So if we have 5 Tervigons pumping these out that 55 new Termagaunts, and at 5 points a Termagaunt that's 275 extra points on the table then you had before.
Now each Tervigon has a 46.861% chance of rolling a double or triple (math might be slightly off but we'll go with it :D ) So we'll round this one down to 40% and that means 2 of our Tervigons won't be spawning next turn.
Turn 2: 3 Tervigons, spit out 11 gaunts each, 33 gaunts, equals an extra 165 points on the table. Now out of those 3 Tervigons odd are we will have 1.5 fail, but will just call it 1 for now, and give the dice the benefit of the doubt they are on the Nid's Side.
Turn 3: 2 Tervigons, spit out 22 gaunts, equaling an extra 110 points. Now by turn 3 after rolling 3 sets of dice there is an amazing 140.583% chance that they will have rolled a double or triple, so we'll say that they've exhausted there birthing and that it for now.
So what do we end up with. Well over three turns those 5 Tervigons produced an extra 110 models on the board, not to shabby and increased the army point size by 550 points, something that can be devastating in a low point game, considering you can get them all in at 1,500 point with extra points to spare.
Now let's forget the odds and go best case senario. That is rolling the best roll on the dice without rolling a double or triple, I'm not going to work out the odds... well why not I'll go ahead and do it. So the best you can roll on 3 dice is a 4,5,6 with out getting a double, that's an extra 15 men per Tervigon a turn. The odds of rolling this is 2.7555 percent, not very good odds at all considering the odds of rolling a double. So let's just round it up to 2.75 for easier math.
So the chances of all of your rolls that turn being 4,5,6 for all tervigons IS....
.000001429 percent, Holy B-Geezez Batman, that's impossible to do, well it's not impossible, just improbable. Hehe. So what does that get you if the dice gods truly smile on you.
Turn 1:
Well if you roll the magic numbers for all your tervigons you get 75 extra guys, that's only 20 extra guys then before, but it is an extra 100 points on the table.
Turn 2:
Well let's see here, 75 more guys and that's 42 more then you would've gotten with normal rolls, which is and extra 210 points.
Turn 3:
See where this is going? Well you get 75 more guys, I can tell you right now there wasn't enough firepower in my army for the normal odds but this is just getting mean... So now you get 53 extra guys or 265 extra points.
Wow at this point you've received an extra 1125 points of men on the ground. Now I know that people will be shooting at the Tervigons so they won't all be on the table, but if they are, well you're about to be swarmed over by the little bugs.
Turn 4:
That's 75 extra men, or 375 extra points.
Turn 5:
This is if you can even deal with watching your opponent move that many men on the board lol, but another 75 beasts, another 375 points, and just a hole swarm of bugs on the board.
So what happens if you beat the odds and you get all this, well that's an extra 375 models on the board then you saw when you first shook hands and said good luck to your opponent, or an extra 1,875 points.
Now the odds of this occuring well would be more zeros then I feel like typing right now, and I'm not sure my windows calculator is up to the task of figuring it out, but it is possible even if near impossible.
But even if your opponent is just roling at odds, an extra 550 points in his favor can be quite game breaking, especially since the minimum point game to get 5 of these guys is under 1,000 points. Now I've not faced these guys in battle, and I haven't taken into account the opponent killing them along the way, but if you are harrassing him with other upclose and personal bugs, there's a good chance you'll add another 500 points in your favor, and easily up to 1,000 points if the dice are favoring you.
Now I'm not going to say you shouldn't play these guys, or play against them, because I've done neither so far, but at the moment they are looking to me like a big wad of cheese. But that's just my opinion until I actually face them in battle.
-CKR
I get the probability of a double or triple to be 96/216=44.44%. (Each number(1-6) has 1 combination yielding a triple and 15 yielding doubles(3 dice which could be the not double with 5 different possible numbers on it). The probability of stopping spawning on turns 1-5 are 44.44%, 24.69%, 13.72%, 7.62%, 4.23%, leaving 5.29% still spawning in turn 6. These results say the average gaunts generated is 22.93 so about 23 ~115 points worth not to bad but you do need access to a ton of models for this.
ReplyDeleteOfcourse I think that killing them really messes with gaunts so all those spawned units might get killed. Plus 10 gaunts is pretty low hanging fruit for kill point games.
I guess the only thing holding Tervigons back from utter crazy brokenness is how bad Tervigons are, and how much of a liability they can be in KP games. 10 gaunts? Single guard squad with a flamer should do the trick.
ReplyDeleteOf course, with target priority being HUGE in the new Nids codex and how ridiculously awesome Tervigons are, this shouldn't be too much of a problem.
Hey Guys, thanks for the feedback.
ReplyDelete@eriochrome, here's how I came up with my number let me know if my logic is wrong, as it's been about 10 years since my last math class ;)
Ok, so say you roll the first dice, what ever number it is the second dice has a 1/6 chance of being the same number, and the third dice also has a 1/6 chance of being that number. So right there you have a 1/3 or 33% chance of rolling a double or triple.
Now the second dice 5 out of 6 dimes will not be the same number but you still have a 1/6 chance of the third die matching it. So you have a 5 in 36 or 13.8%~ chance of those those two dice being a double. So you would add those two together and get a well 47.2 percent chance when you don't go rounding things down prematurely.
Am I wrong here?
Oh and yes, 1/3 of the time in kill point missions those gaunts are really going to suck hehe.
@Max
It's true, in KP missions those gaunts are going to be a problem, but (and I've not played against it) the shear volume of them seem like they can over whelm the firepower of quite a few armies, I for instance do not think I could pull down more then 1 Tervigon a turn on a good day, with 6 wounds and 6 toughness, my only likely chances are firedragons, which are good for about 1 tervigon and then they get swallowed by the rest of the hoard.
But like I said, I've not played it yet, so I don't know how balanced they are, could just be that they are scary on paper ;)
Problem in the first step:
ReplyDeleteDie 1 rolls X. Probability of die 2 rolling x and die 3 does not is 1/6*5/6, Probability of die 3 rolling x and die 2 not is the same 1/6*5/6 then add in probability of both rolling x is 1/6*1/6 yielding 11/36. So you are off 1/36 on your later total which yields the 44.444%. When adding the 1/6's together to get 33.3% you are essentially double counting the triple roll.
Ofcourse the massive gains depend on if you think gaunts are really worth 5 points in general.
Ah, ok I think I see where I went wrong then lol... Oh well like I said it's been a while.
ReplyDeleteAs for gaunts being worth 5 point, I think they are, if not more. Take an eldar guardian, basically the same statline except a little higher LD and a 5+ save with a 12in gun. Those are 8 points a pop. Now is the little extras worth 3 more points prolly, but then take into effect that those guants will be using the Tervigons 10 LD, prolly have poison and furious charge and maybe feel no pain, and now I think you have a gaunt that is easily worth 10 points each :D
Especially with the ability to charge out once they are created from the Tervigons, but hey that's just me, and once again I'm only speculating on something I've not played yet ;)
Guardians have twice the firepower though and can get a special weapon. I do not know if guardians are the best comparison since they are not the most common of eldar troops since people think they are weak. Ork boyz are better for their 1 more point. Guardsman are pretty similar at 5 points but do you get a sergeant for free in that 50 or is he extra. Guardsman have pretty similar stats with a weaker gun but with rapid fire. Assault 2 12" is better than rapid fire but is Assault 1 12".
ReplyDeletebasically tervigons rule. I took 5 in two games, one game against necrons and one game against imperial guard. Both games ended on turn 3/4 after both armies had been swamped by gaunts. These bad boys are so bad my friends have limited me to 3 maximum per game and games workshop have made a fortune from my mates buying units that can kill them, probably the reason for them in the first place. As far as spawning goes its totally random and law of probability is a lie :) sometimes ive had all my spawning fail on turn 1, other times ive managed an entire game without failing any
ReplyDelete