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So maybe not everyone knows about the Mighty Spawn Puking Tervigon but I have a feeling most people will be seeing them at sometime in the near future on the table top. The basic ability is for them to hatch 3D6 Termagaunts a turn. So what I wanted to go over is how many of those little beasties can you get onto the table.
So let's just start off with the Odds, and remembering that on a Double or Triple it can not pop anymore beasties out a turn. We're also going to figure this out saying that there are five of these Tervigons on the table.
So Turn 1:
5 Tervigons, all functioning, average roll of 3D6 is well 10.5 but we'll round that up to 11 to make the math easier. So if we have 5 Tervigons pumping these out that 55 new Termagaunts, and at 5 points a Termagaunt that's 275 extra points on the table then you had before.
Now each Tervigon has a 46.861% chance of rolling a double or triple (math might be slightly off but we'll go with it :D ) So we'll round this one down to 40% and that means 2 of our Tervigons won't be spawning next turn.
Turn 2: 3 Tervigons, spit out 11 gaunts each, 33 gaunts, equals an extra 165 points on the table. Now out of those 3 Tervigons odd are we will have 1.5 fail, but will just call it 1 for now, and give the dice the benefit of the doubt they are on the Nid's Side.
Turn 3: 2 Tervigons, spit out 22 gaunts, equaling an extra 110 points. Now by turn 3 after rolling 3 sets of dice there is an amazing 140.583% chance that they will have rolled a double or triple, so we'll say that they've exhausted there birthing and that it for now.
So what do we end up with. Well over three turns those 5 Tervigons produced an extra 110 models on the board, not to shabby and increased the army point size by 550 points, something that can be devastating in a low point game, considering you can get them all in at 1,500 point with extra points to spare.
Now let's forget the odds and go best case senario. That is rolling the best roll on the dice without rolling a double or triple, I'm not going to work out the odds... well why not I'll go ahead and do it. So the best you can roll on 3 dice is a 4,5,6 with out getting a double, that's an extra 15 men per Tervigon a turn. The odds of rolling this is 2.7555 percent, not very good odds at all considering the odds of rolling a double. So let's just round it up to 2.75 for easier math.
So the chances of all of your rolls that turn being 4,5,6 for all tervigons IS....
.000001429 percent, Holy B-Geezez Batman, that's impossible to do, well it's not impossible, just improbable. Hehe. So what does that get you if the dice gods truly smile on you.
Turn 1:
Well if you roll the magic numbers for all your tervigons you get 75 extra guys, that's only 20 extra guys then before, but it is an extra 100 points on the table.
Turn 2:
Well let's see here, 75 more guys and that's 42 more then you would've gotten with normal rolls, which is and extra 210 points.
Turn 3:
See where this is going? Well you get 75 more guys, I can tell you right now there wasn't enough firepower in my army for the normal odds but this is just getting mean... So now you get 53 extra guys or 265 extra points.
Wow at this point you've received an extra 1125 points of men on the ground. Now I know that people will be shooting at the Tervigons so they won't all be on the table, but if they are, well you're about to be swarmed over by the little bugs.
Turn 4:
That's 75 extra men, or 375 extra points.
Turn 5:
This is if you can even deal with watching your opponent move that many men on the board lol, but another 75 beasts, another 375 points, and just a hole swarm of bugs on the board.
So what happens if you beat the odds and you get all this, well that's an extra 375 models on the board then you saw when you first shook hands and said good luck to your opponent, or an extra 1,875 points.
Now the odds of this occuring well would be more zeros then I feel like typing right now, and I'm not sure my windows calculator is up to the task of figuring it out, but it is possible even if near impossible.
But even if your opponent is just roling at odds, an extra 550 points in his favor can be quite game breaking, especially since the minimum point game to get 5 of these guys is under 1,000 points. Now I've not faced these guys in battle, and I haven't taken into account the opponent killing them along the way, but if you are harrassing him with other upclose and personal bugs, there's a good chance you'll add another 500 points in your favor, and easily up to 1,000 points if the dice are favoring you.
Now I'm not going to say you shouldn't play these guys, or play against them, because I've done neither so far, but at the moment they are looking to me like a big wad of cheese. But that's just my opinion until I actually face them in battle.
-CKR